Introduction

A democratic society is one governed by the will of the people—and free, fair, and impartial elections are a cornerstone of that. When ensuring a free, fair, and impartial election process, a few things remain true: the media must be free to report, voting must be accessible, and polling must be public and transparent.

As a whole, the insights industry—market research, polling, data analytics, and public opinion research—is a key indicator of a free society. The ability to freely poll citizens and publicly share the results of those polls, especially as they relate to elections, is an important process.

Throughout this article, we’re going to dig into the role of the insights industry in upholding democratic principles and how transparency in polling plays a big part in keeping elections fair.

The Role of the Insights Industry in Election Processes

As we approach the 2024 election cycle, everyone wants to know, “Who’s in the lead?” or “Who’s going to win?” And the main way we pinpoint this data is through polling.

This means the insights industry plays an important role in the democratic process through its transparency about public opinion. Top political polling companies and research firms conduct polls and surveys that help us gather ideas around voter sentiment.

Not only do these insights help voters get a sense of how the candidates are stacking up against each other, but they also help the candidates, parties, and the media make informed decisions on the campaign trail.

Let’s dig deeper into some of the ways that the insights industry makes an impact on the election process.

1. Informing Voters and Candidates

More than just satisfying the, “Who’s the most popular candidate?” question that’s always reeling through everyone’s mind, these political insights also help voters get a clear understanding of where the candidates stand on various issues.

By sharing public opinion polls, voters are able to see not just each candidate’s policy positions, but the popularity of said positions.

For example, we have public polls like the following that showcase how Americans feel about certain issues—in this case, same-sex marriage:

We also have public polls that showcase candidate popularity and likelihood of winning, like we can see below:

Not only does this help satiate voter curiosity, but it also keeps candidates themselves informed. By having data like this from public polls, they can use it to fine-tune their own campaign strategies and understand voter concerns.

2. Promoting Transparency and Accountability

The insights industry also acts as a form of checks and balances in the political landscape. While candidates might claim one thing (i.e., that they’re winning a race or that voters agree with their stance on a policy more than the other candidate’s stance), public polling might tell a very different story.

This promotes transparency by ensuring that voters know exactly who’s winning a race or how many people agree with certain issues and policy stances.

These public polls provide a check on candidate claims as well as a certain level of accountability. For example, we’ll be able to see clear changes and trends in polling data if the actions or statements of a candidate lead to a significant shift in public opinion. Having that clear indicator of what’s causing the shift makes said accountability crucial in the electoral process.

3. Ensuring Fair Representation

Fair representation is another foundational principle of democracy. It focuses on ensuring that all citizens are fairly represented by their area’s (be it city, county, state, country) elected officials. And when we look at elections on a national scale, the insights industry has a huge hand in this.

It’s up to the polls to ensure that their methodologies are not only scientifically sound, but that they’re using appropriate sample populations that fairly represent the area they’re trying to find more about.

Look at it like this. The United States is broken down into red (Republican) and blue (Democratic) areas. If someone is trying to find a fair sample of how a certain state feels about a candidate or a political issue, they need a sample that truly represents the actual count of red versus blue citizens.

If, instead, the poll focuses on an area (and, therefore, a sample) that mostly aligns with one side of the political spectrum, they’re not actually getting a fairly represented result.

But this doesn’t only count for political affiliation. This also needs to include accounting for other factors, like age, gender identity, race, and socioeconomic status in order to have a clear understanding of the sample and make sure that everyone across all walks of life are adequately represented.

Sticking to this fair representation code helps prevent bias in the interpretation of public opinion. It also helps prevent skewed polls that don’t adequately represent real life. It’s our job in the insights industry to make sure that the voices of all segments are heard and reflected in our work.

4. Mitigating Electoral Manipulation

In this day and age, where anyone can share anything online, we’re seeing a massive influx of misinformation. Even factual information can easily be manipulated and then spread rapidly across social media platforms.

The insights industry has a responsibility to combat and counteract misinformation (false or inaccurate information) and disinformation (false information deliberately meant to mislead) through its work.

We do this through the use of sophisticated tools that detect bots, disinformation campaigns, and other forms of interference that can skew public perception and manipulate voters throughout the electoral process. Plus, here at OvationMR, we have a manual process of checking survey results as another level of safeguarding against misinformation.

Our industry as a whole plays a major role in educating the public about the dangers of misinformation. This is why many media publications have ranked public polling companies and shared those results, so that the general public is able to understand which pollsters are more trustworthy and why.

Political poll analysis company FiveThirtyEight has put together its own ranking of political pollsters based on factors like their confidence in the pollster’s work, error and bias, transparency, and the total number of polls they’ve analyzed from said pollster within a given time frame.

Here are some of their most trustworthy pollsters based on this analysis:

Having analyses like these in the insights industry helps us promote the most credible sources of information during the election cycle.

5. Post-Election Analysis and Reflection

Finally, the insights industry also plays a role once ballots are cast and counted. Post-election analysis is a crucial step, especially if the election results were surprising based on poll data, like we saw with the 2016 election.

It’s important for us to do the research to understand why actual results differed from polling, if there were changes in voter behavior, how effective certain campaign strategies were, and what the overall health of the democratic process looks like.

These post-election insights help us identify trends across the board, like a shift in voter demographics or a change in public priorities. For example, pre-election polls may have missed a change in priority on certain issues that would have otherwise altered their results ahead of time.

Having these post-election analyses helps the insights industry and the political parties and policymakers reflect back on the election process so they can make changes and improvements for the future.

Ethical Considerations and Challenges

The insights industry plays an important role in a democratic society—but that doesn’t come without its own ethical considerations and challenges. The following challenges must be addressed in order for pollsters to gain and keep public trust.

Maintaining Impartiality

First and foremost, polling companies must remain impartial and unbiased throughout the entire process. The moment that a pollster even gives the appearance of having a political preference or showing any kind of favoritism towards a candidate, they lose all credibility.
After all, how can anyone trust their polls, knowing that they have a stake in the outcome? Political polling companies must adhere to a strict code of ethics that includes methodological transparency and commitment to objectivity.

Avoiding the Bandwagon Effect

Polling data can often have its own subconscious impact on the general public, causing undecided voters simply to lean towards a candidate because they are leading in the polls. This is called a “bandwagon effect.”

Polling companies must keep this in mind and ensure they’re being as objective as possible as they present the data. This includes sharing disclaimers about margins of error, methodology, and more, so that voters don’t take the polls as fact and feel pressured to conform to what they perceive as majority opinions.

Dealing with Data Privacy

Finally, these polling companies must also put a heavy emphasis on data protection throughout their work. The industry is collecting and analyzing vast amounts of data to keep up with the ever-changing political landscape. Some political polling companies are updating results on the daily.

This means data privacy must be of critical concern. These companies need to do everything in their power to prevent breaches that could not only lead to the manipulation of electoral outcomes but also erode public trust in the insights industry’s ability to safely do their jobs.